Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
