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It was two months ago when the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the source for the team's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.

Per the data, twice all season has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The current approach looks like to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.

A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.

• The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho might become the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.

This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.