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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However the current field is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans improving together. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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